{ "generated_at": "2026-05-21", "model": { "id": "ai-exposure-framework-2026-05-21-v0.5", "asOf": "2026-05-21", "title": "Szenariobasierte 2026-Heuristik auf Basis der Eloundou et al. 2024 Werte", "framing": "Heuristische Erweiterung, keine vollstaendige neue Task-Annotation und keine Replikation der Science-Studie. Das Hauptszenario ist ein plausibles Basisszenario; die konservative Variante ist das Szenario mit halbierten Modifikatoren.", "formulas": { "technical": "technical_beta_2026 = min(cap / 10, beta_2024 + long_context + agentic_tools + multimodal + role_override)", "adoptionAdjusted": "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026 = min(cap / 10, technical_beta_2026 + adoption)", "score": "score = round(beta * 10)" }, "sources": [ "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998", "https://openai.com/index/gpts-are-gpts/", "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/", "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-4/", "https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-1/", "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/agents-and-tools/tool-use/computer-use-tool", "https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/gemini/google-gemini-update-may-2024/", "https://news.microsoft.com/source/emea/2025/04/2025-work-trend-index-swiss-organizations-lead-in-ai-adoption-52-automate-entire-business-processes-surpassing-global-and-european-averages/", "https://dam-api.bfs.admin.ch/hub/api/dam/assets/36195847/master", "https://dam-api.bfs.admin.ch/hub/api/dam/assets/32069034/master", "https://dam-api.bfs.admin.ch/hub/api/dam/assets/36035149/master", "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/" ], "dataCurrency": { "dashboardPay": "Lohnwerte wurden am 2026-05-21 mit BFS LSE 2024 nach CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppen aktualisiert. Wo Spezial-, Kantons-, Vertrags- oder Arbeitgeberquellen genauer sind als ein 2-Steller-Gruppenlohn, bleibt der bisherige Dashboard-Wert erhalten und LSE 2024 wird als Benchmark dokumentiert.", "dashboardJobs": "Beschaeftigtenwerte wurden am 2026-05-21 nicht als neue Dashboard-SAKE-Mikrotabelle ersetzt. Der bestehende SAKE-2023-Berufsmix und die v4-Ergaenzungswerte wurden proportional mit dem offiziellen SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert.", "latestBfsPay": "BFS LSE 2024 ist verfuegbar; der gesamtwirtschaftliche Medianlohn lag 2024 bei 7024 Franken brutto pro Monat.", "latestBfsJobs": "BFS SAKE in Kuerze 2024 ist verfuegbar; sie weist 4.876 Mio. Erwerbstaetige aus. SAKE in Kuerze 2023 weist 4.848 Mio. Erwerbstaetige aus; daraus ergibt sich ein Kalibrierungsfaktor von rund 1.0058.", "lsePxWebTable": "Monatlicher Bruttolohn nach Jahr, Grossregion, Berufsgruppe, Lebensalter, Geschlecht und Zentralwert und andere Perzentile, Tabelle px-x-0304010000_205.", "refreshAudit": "data/bfs-2024-refresh.csv und data/bfs-2024-refresh.json dokumentieren pro Beruf die LSE-2024-Gruppe, den Lohnbenchmark, die Pay-Refresh-Methode und die SAKE-Kalibrierung." }, "categoryFactors": { "finanzen-recht": { "longContext": 0.1, "agentic": 0.07, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.05, "cap": 9, "capType": "regulatorisch/sozial", "capRationale": "Mandatsverantwortung, Haftung, vertrauliche Daten und finale juristische oder finanzielle Beurteilung begrenzen die Exposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "verifizierbare Legal-/Finance-Agenten, bessere Audit Trails und breiterer Datenzugang produktiv werden.", "note": "lange Verträge, Dossiers, Regulierung, Research und Reports" }, "it-tech": { "longContext": 0.09, "agentic": 0.11, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "cap": 9, "capType": "technisch/regulatorisch/sozial", "capRationale": "Der Aufgabenraum ist stark digital, aber Schweizer IT-Rollen enthalten oft Requirement Engineering, Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und Haftung in regulierten oder sicherheitskritischen Systemen. Einfachere Implementierungsaufgaben sind teils off-/nearshored.", "capCouldRiseIf": "auditierbare Coding- und Architekturagenten in regulierten Umgebungen breit validiert werden und Verantwortung, Security Review sowie Change-Prozesse technisch besser abgesichert sind.", "note": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, aber Schweizer Rollen enthalten viel Architektur, Review, Interaktion und Verantwortung" }, "gesundheit": { "longContext": 0.07, "agentic": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "cap": 6, "capType": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "capRationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, "bildung": { "longContext": 0.07, "agentic": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.03, "cap": 7, "capType": "sozial/regulatorisch", "capRationale": "Lernbeziehung, Aufsicht, pädagogische Verantwortung und institutionelle Regeln begrenzen die Exposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "KI-Tutoren, Prüfungsintegration und Lernplattformen mit Qualitätssicherung breiter genutzt werden.", "note": "Materialerstellung, Feedback, Research und Unterrichtsvorbereitung" }, "handwerk-bau": { "longContext": 0.03, "agentic": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "cap": 4, "capType": "physisch", "capRationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, "verwaltung": { "longContext": 0.11, "agentic": 0.14, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.07, "cap": 9, "capType": "organisatorisch/regulatorisch", "capRationale": "Standardisierte Dokumente sind stark erreichbar, aber Amtsverantwortung, Datenschutz und Ausnahmen begrenzen.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Fachverfahren, Register und KI-Agenten mit Berechtigungs- und Prüfpfaden integriert werden.", "note": "standardisierte Dokumente, Formulare, E-Mail, Termine und Workflows" }, "verkauf-handel": { "longContext": 0.07, "agentic": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "cap": 8, "capType": "sozial/organisatorisch", "capRationale": "Kundenbeziehung, Verhandlung und Ladenpraxis begrenzen, Backoffice und CRM sind stark erreichbar.", "capCouldRiseIf": "CRM-, ERP- und Angebotsagenten direkt in Verkaufsprozessen laufen.", "note": "Kundenkommunikation, Angebote, CRM, Sortiments- und Backoffice-Arbeit" }, "marketing-sales": { "longContext": 0.1, "agentic": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.07, "adoption": 0.05, "cap": 8, "capType": "sozial/marktlich/organisatorisch", "capRationale": "Kampagnen, Research, CRM, Angebote und Präsentationen sind stark erreichbar, aber Markenurteil, Verhandlung, Kundenzugang, Umsetzung und Budgetverantwortung begrenzen.", "capCouldRiseIf": "CRM-, Marketing-Automation-, Research- und Präsentationsagenten enger mit Unternehmensdaten und Freigabeprozessen verbunden werden.", "note": "Kampagnen, Copy, Research, Slides, CRM, Angebote und Beratungsvorbereitung" }, "transport-logistik": { "longContext": 0.04, "agentic": 0.04, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.02, "cap": 5, "capType": "physisch/sicherheit", "capRationale": "Mobilität, Maschinenbedienung, Sicherheitskontext und Ausnahmeereignisse bleiben ausserhalb reiner LLM-Exposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Disposition, Flottensteuerung und autonome Systeme stärker mit Agenten gekoppelt werden.", "note": "Disposition, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Mobilität bleibt ausser Scope" }, "gastronomie-tourismus": { "longContext": 0.05, "agentic": 0.05, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.04, "cap": 7, "capType": "physisch/sozial", "capRationale": "Service, Küche und Gästebeziehung bleiben physisch, Buchung und Kommunikation sind erreichbar.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Buchungs-, Revenue- und Gästeagenten flächendeckend integriert werden.", "note": "Buchung, Planung, Menüs, Kommunikation und Content" }, "landwirtschaft": { "longContext": 0.03, "agentic": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "cap": 4, "capType": "physisch", "capRationale": "Feldarbeit, Tiere, Wetter und Maschinen begrenzen reine LLM-Exposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Agrarrobotik, Sensorik und Entscheidungsagenten stärker zusammenwachsen.", "note": "Beratung, Planung, Markt-/Wetterdaten und Marketing, aber Feldarbeit bleibt physisch" }, "kunst-medien": { "longContext": 0.09, "agentic": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.16, "adoption": 0.05, "cap": 9, "capType": "sozial/marktlich", "capRationale": "Multimodale Tools erreichen viele Aufgaben, aber Stil, Auftrag, Rechte, Marke und menschliche Auswahl begrenzen.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Rechteklärung, konsistente Asset-Pipelines und multimodale Agenten produktiver werden.", "note": "Text plus Bild-, Video- und Audio-Workflows" }, "ingenieurwesen": { "longContext": 0.09, "agentic": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.06, "adoption": 0.04, "cap": 8, "capType": "regulatorisch/technisch", "capRationale": "Normen, Haftung, physische Systeme und Validierung begrenzen trotz hoher Dokumenten- und Analyseexposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "CAE/CAD-, Normen- und Simulationsagenten prüfbar integriert werden.", "note": "Normen, technische Dokumente, Code und visuelle Analysen" }, "soziales": { "longContext": 0.05, "agentic": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.02, "cap": 5, "capType": "sozial/regulatorisch", "capRationale": "Beziehungsarbeit, Schutzauftrag, Vertrauen, Datenschutz und Verantwortung begrenzen die Exposition.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Fallführungssysteme und Dokumentationsassistenten sicherer integriert werden.", "note": "Falldokumentation und Research, aber Beziehung und Schutzauftrag bleiben zentral" }, "personen-dienste": { "longContext": 0.02, "agentic": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "cap": 3, "capType": "physisch/sozial", "capRationale": "Die Kerntaetigkeiten sind koerperliche Dienstleistungen vor Ort; KI hilft vor allem bei Termin-, Kommunikations-, Rapport- oder Marketingnebenaufgaben.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Serviceplanung, visuelle Assistenz und Robotik enger mit betrieblichen Workflows gekoppelt werden.", "note": "Termine, Checklisten, Kundenkommunikation und Marketing, aber physische Dienstleistung dominiert" }, "sicherheit": { "longContext": 0.04, "agentic": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "cap": 5, "capType": "sicherheit/physisch", "capRationale": "Einsatzsituationen, Zwangsmittel, Deeskalation und Verantwortung bleiben menschlich und physisch.", "capCouldRiseIf": "Lagebild-, Rapport- und Trainingssysteme breiter eingesetzt werden.", "note": "Berichte, Recherche und Lagebilder, aber Einsatzsituationen bleiben menschlich" } }, "roleOverrides": { "softwareentwickler-in": { "delta": 0.02, "label": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, begrenzt durch Architektur und Review" }, "data-scientist": { "delta": 0.04, "label": "Datenanalyse-, Notebook- und Modellierungsagenten" }, "sysadmin": { "delta": 0.03, "label": "Tool-Use für IT-Betrieb und Runbooks" }, "cybersecurity": { "delta": 0.04, "label": "Security-Codeanalyse und Triage-Agenten, begrenzt durch Haftung und Angriffskontext" }, "ki-ingenieur": { "delta": 0.05, "label": "KI-native Workflows, begrenzt durch Evaluation und Produktionsverantwortung" }, "jurist-in": { "delta": 0.06, "label": "Long-Context Legal Review" }, "steuerberater-in": { "delta": 0.04, "label": "Steuer-Research und Mandatsdokumente" }, "buchhalter-in": { "delta": 0.05, "label": "Beleg-, Report- und Abstimmungsworkflows" }, "sachbearbeiter-verwaltung": { "delta": 0.06, "label": "Formular- und Prozessagenten" }, "sekretaer-in": { "delta": 0.05, "label": "E-Mail-, Kalender- und Dokumentenagenten" }, "grafiker-in": { "delta": 0.09, "label": "Bildgenerierung und visuelle Iteration" }, "fotograf-in": { "delta": 0.09, "label": "Bild-KI und Retusche" }, "cutter-in": { "delta": 0.08, "label": "Video-, Untertitel- und Schnittassistenz" }, "journalist-in": { "delta": 0.04, "label": "Recherche- und Redaktionsassistenz" }, "reisebuero": { "delta": 0.06, "label": "Reiseplanungs-Agenten" }, "arzt-aerztin": { "delta": 0.02, "label": "medizinische Dokumentation" }, "apotheker-in": { "delta": 0.02, "label": "Interaktions- und Beratungsassistenz" }, "ux-designer": { "delta": 0.03, "label": "Prototyping, Research-Synthese und UI-Text" }, "hr-fachmann": { "delta": 0.03, "label": "Recruiting-, Policy- und Interview-Workflows" }, "einkaeufer-in": { "delta": 0.03, "label": "Lieferantenrecherche und Angebotsvergleich" }, "hotelfachmann": { "delta": 0.03, "label": "Buchung, Gaestekommunikation und Content" }, "hochschuldozent": { "delta": 0.03, "label": "Research, Materialerstellung und Feedback" }, "maschinenbauingenieur": { "delta": 0.02, "label": "technische Dokumentation und CAD-nahe Analyse" }, "elektroingenieur": { "delta": 0.02, "label": "technische Dokumentation, Code und Schaltplanpruefung" } } }, "scenarios": [ { "id": "science_2024", "label": "Science 2024", "description": "Originale Eloundou-basierte Dashboard-Scores", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 0, "factorScale": 0, "capMode": "base" }, { "id": "technical_base_2026", "label": "Heute 2026 technisch", "description": "Plausibles Basisszenario ohne Adoption; nicht als defensives Szenario zu lesen", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 1, "factorScale": 1, "capMode": "base" }, { "id": "adoption_adjusted_base_2026", "label": "Heute 2026 adoptionsgewichtet", "description": "Technische Exposition plus separater Adoptionaufschlag", "adoption": true, "roleScale": 1, "factorScale": 1, "capMode": "base" }, { "id": "no_role_overrides", "label": "Ohne Berufs-Overrides", "description": "Technische Modifikatoren ohne berufsspezifische Overrides", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 0, "factorScale": 1, "capMode": "base" }, { "id": "half_modifiers", "label": "Halbierte Modifikatoren", "description": "Konservativere technische Fortschrittsannahmen", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 0.5, "factorScale": 0.5, "capMode": "base" }, { "id": "aggressive_modifiers", "label": "Aggressivere Modifikatoren", "description": "Hoehere technische Fortschrittsannahmen bei gleichen Caps", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 1.35, "factorScale": 1.35, "capMode": "base" }, { "id": "no_caps", "label": "Ohne Caps", "description": "Technisches Basisszenario ohne berufsfeldspezifische Obergrenzen", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 1, "factorScale": 1, "capMode": "none" }, { "id": "strict_caps", "label": "Strengere Caps", "description": "Technisches Basisszenario mit um einen Scorepunkt strengeren Caps", "adoption": false, "roleScale": 1, "factorScale": 1, "capMode": "strict" } ], "summary": { "occupations": 86, "science_2024": { "id": "science_2024", "label": "Science 2024", "description": "Originale Eloundou-basierte Dashboard-Scores", "very_high_8_10": 3, "medium_5_7": 39, "low_0_4": 44, "weighted_score": 3.93, "top_10_deltas": [ { "slug": "softwareentwickler-in", "occupation": "Softwareentwickler/-in", "score_2024": 9, "scenario_score": 9, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "marketingfachmann-frau", "occupation": "Marketingfachmann/-frau", "score_2024": 8, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "uebersetzer-dolmetscher", "occupation": "Übersetzer/-in & Dolmetscher/-in", "score_2024": 8, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "cybersecurity", "occupation": "Cybersecurity-Spezialist/-in", "score_2024": 7, "scenario_score": 7, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "data-scientist", "occupation": "Data Scientist", "score_2024": 7, "scenario_score": 7, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "ki-ingenieur", "occupation": "KI-Ingenieur/-in", "score_2024": 7, "scenario_score": 7, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "sysadmin", "occupation": "Systemadministrator/-in", "score_2024": 7, "scenario_score": 7, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "unternehmensberater-management-consultant", "occupation": "Unternehmensberater/-in / Management Consultant", "score_2024": 7, "scenario_score": 7, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "buchhalter-in", "occupation": "Buchhalter/-in", "score_2024": 6, "scenario_score": 6, "delta": 0 }, { "slug": "controller-in", "occupation": "Controller/-in", "score_2024": 6, "scenario_score": 6, "delta": 0 } ], "top_10_uncertainty": [ { "slug": "ux-designer", "occupation": "UX Designer/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "fotograf-in", "occupation": "Fotograf/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "cutter-in", "occupation": "Cutter/-in (Video/Film)", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "hr-fachmann", "occupation": "HR-Fachmann/-frau", "confidence": "high", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Viele standardisierte digitale Dokumenten- und Prozessaufgaben", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "zollbeamter", "occupation": "Zollbeamte/r", "confidence": "high", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 8, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Viele standardisierte digitale Dokumenten- und Prozessaufgaben" ] }, { "slug": "grafiker-in", "occupation": "Grafiker/-in", "confidence": "low", "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Originalscore hat Scope-Hinweis", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "buchhalter-in", "occupation": "Buchhalter/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Datenzugang und Auditierbarkeit entscheidend", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "steuerberater-in", "occupation": "Steuerberater/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Datenzugang und Auditierbarkeit entscheidend", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "jurist-in", "occupation": "Jurist/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 8, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Datenzugang und Auditierbarkeit entscheidend", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "data-scientist", "occupation": "Data Scientist", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] } ] }, "technical_base_2026": { "id": "technical_base_2026", "label": "Heute 2026 technisch", "description": "Plausibles Basisszenario ohne Adoption; nicht als defensives Szenario zu lesen", "very_high_8_10": 27, "medium_5_7": 26, "low_0_4": 33, "weighted_score": 5.39, "top_10_deltas": [ { "slug": "grafiker-in", "occupation": "Grafiker/-in", "score_2024": 5, "scenario_score": 9, "delta": 4 }, { "slug": "fotograf-in", "occupation": "Fotograf/-in", "score_2024": 4, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 4 }, { "slug": "journalist-in", "occupation": "Journalist/-in", "score_2024": 6, "scenario_score": 9, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "pr-fachmann", "occupation": "PR-Fachmann/-frau", "score_2024": 6, "scenario_score": 9, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "sachbearbeiter-verwaltung", "occupation": "Sachbearbeiter/-in (Verwaltung)", "score_2024": 6, "scenario_score": 9, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "sekretaer-in", "occupation": "Sekretär/-in", "score_2024": 6, "scenario_score": 9, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "cutter-in", "occupation": "Cutter/-in (Video/Film)", "score_2024": 5, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "hr-fachmann", "occupation": "HR-Fachmann/-frau", "score_2024": 5, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "it-projektleiter", "occupation": "IT-Projektleiter/-in", "score_2024": 5, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 3 }, { "slug": "key-account-manager", "occupation": "Key Account Manager/-in", "score_2024": 5, "scenario_score": 8, "delta": 3 } ], "top_10_uncertainty": [ { "slug": "ux-designer", "occupation": "UX Designer/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ] }, { "slug": "fotograf-in", "occupation": "Fotograf/-in", "confidence": "medium", "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", 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false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7208, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5758, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7373, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "lange Verträge, Dossiers, Regulierung, Research und Reports" }, { "occupation": "Softwareentwickler/-in", "title": "Softwareentwickler/-in", "slug": "softwareentwickler-in", "category": "it-tech", "category_label": "IT & Technologie", "isco": "2512", "pay": 129000, "jobs": 88500, "pay_previous": 115000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9949, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 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Einfachere Implementierungsaufgaben sind teils off-/nearshored.", "cap_could_rise_if": "auditierbare Coding- und Architekturagenten in regulierten Umgebungen breit validiert werden und Verantwortung, Security Review sowie Change-Prozesse technisch besser abgesichert sind.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.11, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.04 }, "override_label": "Datenanalyse-, Notebook- und Modellierungsagenten", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 21", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.6958, "score": 7, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8308, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9658, "score": 10, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, aber Schweizer Rollen enthalten viel Architektur, Review, Interaktion und Verantwortung" }, { "occupation": "Systemadministrator/-in", "title": "Systemadministrator/-in", "slug": "sysadmin", "category": "it-tech", "category_label": "IT & Technologie", "isco": "2522", "pay": 129000, "jobs": 32200, "pay_previous": 98000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9949, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 129000, "lse_2024_group_code": "25", "lse_2024_group_label": "25 Spezialisten in der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 32000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 7, "beta_2024": 0.7297, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.9897, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 1.0397, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "technisch/regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Der Aufgabenraum ist stark digital, aber Schweizer IT-Rollen enthalten oft Requirement Engineering, Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und Haftung in regulierten oder sicherheitskritischen Systemen. 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Einfachere Implementierungsaufgaben sind teils off-/nearshored.", "cap_could_rise_if": "auditierbare Coding- und Architekturagenten in regulierten Umgebungen breit validiert werden und Verantwortung, Security Review sowie Change-Prozesse technisch besser abgesichert sind.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.11, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 8, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 13", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.5303, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7603, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8103, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.7603, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6453, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8408, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7603, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7603, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, aber Schweizer Rollen enthalten viel Architektur, Review, Interaktion und Verantwortung" }, { "occupation": "Cybersecurity-Spezialist/-in", "title": "Cybersecurity-Spezialist/-in", "slug": "cybersecurity", "category": "it-tech", "category_label": "IT & Technologie", "isco": "2529", "pay": 129000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 130000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9949, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 129000, "lse_2024_group_code": "25", "lse_2024_group_label": "25 Spezialisten in der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 7, "beta_2024": 0.6636, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.9336, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9836, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "technisch/regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Der Aufgabenraum ist stark digital, aber Schweizer IT-Rollen enthalten oft Requirement Engineering, Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und Haftung in regulierten oder sicherheitskritischen Systemen. Einfachere Implementierungsaufgaben sind teils off-/nearshored.", "cap_could_rise_if": "auditierbare Coding- und Architekturagenten in regulierten Umgebungen breit validiert werden und Verantwortung, Security Review sowie Change-Prozesse technisch besser abgesichert sind.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.11, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.04 }, "override_label": "Security-Codeanalyse und Triage-Agenten, begrenzt durch Haftung und Angriffskontext", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 25", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.6636, "score": 7, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.8936, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7986, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9336, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, aber Schweizer Rollen enthalten viel Architektur, Review, Interaktion und Verantwortung" }, { "occupation": "UX Designer/-in", "title": "UX Designer/-in", "slug": "ux-designer", "category": "it-tech", "category_label": "IT & Technologie", "isco": "2166", "pay": 113000, "jobs": 12100, "pay_previous": 100000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8730, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 113000, "lse_2024_group_code": "21", "lse_2024_group_label": "21 Naturwissenschaftler, Mathematiker und Ingenieure", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 12000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.5125, "technical_beta_2026": 0.7725, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8225, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.7725, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8225, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "technisch/regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Der Aufgabenraum ist stark digital, aber Schweizer IT-Rollen enthalten oft Requirement Engineering, Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und Haftung in regulierten oder sicherheitskritischen Systemen. Einfachere Implementierungsaufgaben sind teils off-/nearshored.", "cap_could_rise_if": "auditierbare Coding- und Architekturagenten in regulierten Umgebungen breit validiert werden und Verantwortung, Security Review sowie Change-Prozesse technisch besser abgesichert sind.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.11, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.03 }, "override_label": "Prototyping, Research-Synthese und UI-Text", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 21", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.5125, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7725, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8225, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.7425, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6425, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8635, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7725, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7725, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, aber Schweizer Rollen enthalten viel Architektur, Review, Interaktion und Verantwortung" }, { "occupation": "KI-Ingenieur/-in", "title": "KI-Ingenieur/-in", "slug": "ki-ingenieur", "category": "it-tech", "category_label": "IT & Technologie", "isco": "2511", "pay": 140000, "jobs": 5000, "pay_previous": 140000, "source_pay_previous": "Schätzung 2024", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9949, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 129000, "lse_2024_group_code": "25", "lse_2024_group_label": "25 Spezialisten in der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 5000, "source_jobs_previous": "Schätzung BFS/IKT 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 7, "beta_2024": 0.6923, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.9723, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 1.0223, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "technisch/regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Der Aufgabenraum ist stark digital, aber Schweizer IT-Rollen enthalten oft Requirement Engineering, Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und Haftung in regulierten oder sicherheitskritischen Systemen. Einfachere Implementierungsaufgaben sind teils off-/nearshored.", "cap_could_rise_if": "auditierbare Coding- und Architekturagenten in regulierten Umgebungen breit validiert werden und Verantwortung, Security Review sowie Change-Prozesse technisch besser abgesichert sind.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.11, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.05 }, "override_label": "KI-native Workflows, begrenzt durch Evaluation und Produktionsverantwortung", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Klar digitales Text-, Code- und Toolprofil", "Schweizer Rollen enthalten oft mehr Architektur, Testing, Stakeholder-Interaktion und regulatorische Verantwortung", "Einfache Implementierungsaufgaben koennen off-/nearshored sein", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Schätzung 2024); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 25 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.6923, "score": 7, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8323, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9723, "score": 10, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Coding-Agenten und Repository-Kontext, aber Schweizer Rollen enthalten viel Architektur, Review, Interaktion und Verantwortung" }, { "occupation": "Arzt / Ärztin (Allgemein)", "title": "Arzt / Ärztin (Allgemein)", "slug": "arzt-aerztin", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2211", "pay": 180000, "jobs": 38200, "pay_previous": 180000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022 / FMH", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 38000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.4473, "technical_beta_2026": 0.6, "technical_score_2026": 6, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 6, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.6073, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6273, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0.02 }, "override_label": "medizinische Dokumentation", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (FMH); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4473, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.5873, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5273, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.6073, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Zahnarzt / Zahnärztin", "title": "Zahnarzt / Zahnärztin", "slug": "zahnarzt", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2261", "pay": 104000, "jobs": 15100, "pay_previous": 165000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 15000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 2, "beta_2024": 0.1589, "technical_beta_2026": 0.2989, "technical_score_2026": 3, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3189, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 3, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.2989, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3189, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 3, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.1589, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2989, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3189, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.2989, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2289, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3479, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.2989, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.2989, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Pflegefachmann/-frau", "title": "Pflegefachmann/-frau", "slug": "pflegefachmann", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2221", "pay": 104000, "jobs": 181000, "pay_previous": 75000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 180000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.3428, "technical_beta_2026": 0.4828, "technical_score_2026": 5, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5028, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 5, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.4828, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5028, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 4, "max_scenario_score": 5, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.3428, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4828, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5028, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.4828, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4128, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5318, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.4828, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.4828, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Physiotherapeut/-in", "title": "Physiotherapeut/-in", "slug": "physiotherapeut", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2264", "pay": 104000, "jobs": 22100, "pay_previous": 80000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 22000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 2, "beta_2024": 0.2257, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3657, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3857, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3657, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3857, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2257, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3657, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3857, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3657, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2957, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4147, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3657, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3657, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Apotheker/-in", "title": "Apotheker/-in", "slug": "apotheker-in", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2262", "pay": 104000, "jobs": 12100, "pay_previous": 95000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 12000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.4286, "technical_beta_2026": 0.5886, "technical_score_2026": 6, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 6, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.5886, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6086, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0.02 }, "override_label": "Interaktions- und Beratungsassistenz", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4286, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5886, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.5686, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5086, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.5886, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Psychiater/-in", "title": "Psychiater/-in", "slug": "psychiater-in", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2212", "pay": 200000, "jobs": 8000, "pay_previous": 200000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022 / FMH", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 8000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.4783, "technical_beta_2026": 0.6, "technical_score_2026": 6, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 6, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.6183, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6383, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (FMH); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4783, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5483, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.6183, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Rettungssanitäter/-in", "title": "Rettungssanitäter/-in", "slug": "rettungssanitaeter", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "3258", "pay": 81000, "jobs": 8000, "pay_previous": 72000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6203, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 81000, "lse_2024_group_code": "32", "lse_2024_group_label": "32 Assistenzberufe im Gesundheitswesen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 8000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 2, "beta_2024": 0.181, "technical_beta_2026": 0.321, "technical_score_2026": 3, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.341, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 3, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.321, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.341, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 32", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.181, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.321, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.341, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.321, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.251, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.37, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.321, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.321, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Primarlehrer/-in", "title": "Primarlehrer/-in", "slug": "primarlehrer-in", "category": "bildung", "category_label": "Bildung & Forschung", "isco": "2341", "pay": 82000, "jobs": 55300, "pay_previous": 82000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022 / Kanton", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9697, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 126000, "lse_2024_group_code": "23", "lse_2024_group_label": "23 Lehrkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 55000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2797, "technical_beta_2026": 0.4197, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4497, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.4197, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4497, "cap": 7, "cap_type": "sozial/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Lernbeziehung, Aufsicht, pädagogische Verantwortung und institutionelle Regeln begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "KI-Tutoren, Prüfungsintegration und Lernplattformen mit Qualitätssicherung breiter genutzt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.03, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Institutionen", "Beziehungs- und Aufsichtsanteil" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 5, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Kanton); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 23 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2797, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4197, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4497, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.4197, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3497, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4687, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.4197, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.4197, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Materialerstellung, Feedback, Research und Unterrichtsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Gymnasiallehrer/-in", "title": "Gymnasiallehrer/-in", "slug": "gymnasiallehrer-in", "category": "bildung", "category_label": "Bildung & Forschung", "isco": "2330", "pay": 105000, "jobs": 22100, "pay_previous": 105000, "source_pay_previous": "Kantone (bes. ZH)", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9697, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 126000, "lse_2024_group_code": "23", "lse_2024_group_label": "23 Lehrkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 22000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.3333, "technical_beta_2026": 0.4733, "technical_score_2026": 5, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5033, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 5, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.4733, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5033, "cap": 7, "cap_type": "sozial/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Lernbeziehung, Aufsicht, pädagogische Verantwortung und institutionelle Regeln begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "KI-Tutoren, Prüfungsintegration und Lernplattformen mit Qualitätssicherung breiter genutzt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.03, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Institutionen", "Beziehungs- und Aufsichtsanteil" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 4, "max_scenario_score": 5, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Kantone (bes. ZH)); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 23 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.3333, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4733, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5033, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.4733, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4033, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5223, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.4733, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.4733, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Materialerstellung, Feedback, Research und Unterrichtsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Hochschuldozent/-in", "title": "Hochschuldozent/-in", "slug": "hochschuldozent", "category": "bildung", "category_label": "Bildung & Forschung", "isco": "2310", "pay": 128000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 128000, "source_pay_previous": "ETH/Uni Zürich Gehaltsbänder", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9697, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 126000, "lse_2024_group_code": "23", "lse_2024_group_label": "23 Lehrkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, 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0.4191, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3701, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3701, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Materialerstellung, Feedback, Research und Unterrichtsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Berufsschullehrer/-in", "title": "Berufsschullehrer/-in", "slug": "berufsschullehrer", "category": "bildung", "category_label": "Bildung & Forschung", "isco": "2320", "pay": 126000, "jobs": 15100, "pay_previous": 95000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9697, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 126000, "lse_2024_group_code": "23", "lse_2024_group_label": "23 Lehrkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 15000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.381, "technical_beta_2026": 0.521, "technical_score_2026": 5, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.551, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 6, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.521, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.551, "cap": 7, "cap_type": "sozial/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Lernbeziehung, Aufsicht, pädagogische Verantwortung und institutionelle Regeln begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "KI-Tutoren, Prüfungsintegration und Lernplattformen mit Qualitätssicherung breiter genutzt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.03, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Institutionen", "Beziehungs- und Aufsichtsanteil" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 23", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.381, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.521, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.551, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.521, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.451, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.57, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.521, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.521, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Materialerstellung, Feedback, Research und Unterrichtsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Elektriker/-in", "title": "Elektriker/-in", "slug": "elektriker-in", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7411", "pay": 84000, "jobs": 65400, "pay_previous": 72000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6432, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 84000, "lse_2024_group_code": "74", "lse_2024_group_label": "74 Elektriker und Elektroniker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 65000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 1, "beta_2024": 0.1282, "technical_beta_2026": 0.1882, "technical_score_2026": 2, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.1982, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 2, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.1882, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.1982, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 2, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 74", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.1282, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.1882, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.1982, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.1882, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1582, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2092, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.1882, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.1882, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Sanitärinstallateur/-in", "title": "Sanitärinstallateur/-in", "slug": "sanitaer-installateur", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7126", "pay": 80000, "jobs": 35200, "pay_previous": 68000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6172, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 80000, "lse_2024_group_code": "71", "lse_2024_group_label": "71 Bau- und Ausbaufachkräfte sowie verwandte Berufe, ausgenommen Elektriker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 35000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 1, "beta_2024": 0.0555, "technical_beta_2026": 0.1155, "technical_score_2026": 1, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.1255, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 1, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.1155, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.1255, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 1, "max_scenario_score": 1, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 71", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.0555, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.1155, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.1255, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.1155, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.0855, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1365, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.1155, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.1155, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Maurer/-in", "title": "Maurer/-in", "slug": "maurer-in", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7112", "pay": 66000, "jobs": 45300, "pay_previous": 66000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022 / LMV Bau", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6172, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 80000, "lse_2024_group_code": "71", "lse_2024_group_label": "71 Bau- und Ausbaufachkräfte sowie verwandte Berufe, ausgenommen Elektriker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 45000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 0, "beta_2024": 0.0192, "technical_beta_2026": 0.0792, "technical_score_2026": 1, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.0892, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 1, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.0792, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.0892, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", 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"lse_2024_group_code": "71", "lse_2024_group_label": "71 Bau- und Ausbaufachkräfte sowie verwandte Berufe, ausgenommen Elektriker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 28000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 1, "beta_2024": 0.1444, "technical_beta_2026": 0.2044, "technical_score_2026": 2, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.2144, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 2, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.2044, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.2144, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 2, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 71", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.1444, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2144, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1744, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2254, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Maler/-in (Gebäude)", "title": "Maler/-in (Gebäude)", "slug": "maler-in", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7131", "pay": 80000, "jobs": 22100, "pay_previous": 62000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6172, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 80000, "lse_2024_group_code": "71", "lse_2024_group_label": "71 Bau- und Ausbaufachkräfte sowie verwandte Berufe, ausgenommen Elektriker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 22000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 0, "beta_2024": 0.0421, "technical_beta_2026": 0.1021, "technical_score_2026": 1, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.1121, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 1, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.1021, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.1121, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 1, "max_scenario_score": 1, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 71", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.0421, "score": 0, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.1021, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.1121, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.1021, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.0721, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1231, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.1021, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.1021, "score": 1, "delta": 1, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Zimmermann/-frau", "title": "Zimmermann/-frau", "slug": "zimmermann", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7115", "pay": 80000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 68000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6172, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 80000, "lse_2024_group_code": "71", "lse_2024_group_label": "71 Bau- und Ausbaufachkräfte sowie verwandte Berufe, ausgenommen Elektriker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 1, "beta_2024": 0.1444, "technical_beta_2026": 0.2044, "technical_score_2026": 2, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.2144, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 2, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.2044, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.2144, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 2, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 71", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.1444, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2144, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1744, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2254, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.2044, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Heizungsinstallateur/-in", "title": "Heizungsinstallateur/-in", "slug": "heizungsinstallateur", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7127", "pay": 80000, "jobs": 20100, "pay_previous": 70000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6172, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 80000, "lse_2024_group_code": "71", "lse_2024_group_label": "71 Bau- und Ausbaufachkräfte sowie verwandte Berufe, ausgenommen Elektriker", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 20000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2578, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3178, "technical_score_2026": 3, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3278, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 3, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3178, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3278, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 3, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 71", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2578, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3178, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3278, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3178, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2878, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3388, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3178, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Sachbearbeiter/-in (Verwaltung)", "title": "Sachbearbeiter/-in (Verwaltung)", "slug": "sachbearbeiter-verwaltung", "category": "verwaltung", "category_label": "Verwaltung & Administration", "isco": "4110", "pay": 86000, "jobs": 120700, "pay_previous": 72000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6637, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 86000, "lse_2024_group_code": "41", "lse_2024_group_label": "41 Allgemeine Büro- und Sekretariatskräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 120000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 6, "beta_2024": 0.595, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.925, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.995, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "organisatorisch/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Standardisierte Dokumente sind stark erreichbar, aber Amtsverantwortung, Datenschutz und Ausnahmen begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fachverfahren, Register und KI-Agenten mit Berechtigungs- und Prüfpfaden integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.11, "agentic_tools": 0.14, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.07, "role_override": 0.06 }, "override_label": "Formular- und Prozessagenten", "confidence": "high", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Viele standardisierte digitale Dokumenten- und Prozessaufgaben", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 41", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.595, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.865, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.76, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.925, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "standardisierte Dokumente, Formulare, E-Mail, Termine und Workflows" }, { "occupation": "HR-Fachmann/-frau", "title": "HR-Fachmann/-frau", "slug": "hr-fachmann", "category": "verwaltung", "category_label": "Verwaltung & Administration", "isco": "2423", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 45300, "pay_previous": 88000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 45000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.4887, "technical_beta_2026": 0.7887, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8587, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 4, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.7887, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8587, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "organisatorisch/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Standardisierte Dokumente sind stark erreichbar, aber Amtsverantwortung, Datenschutz und Ausnahmen begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fachverfahren, Register und KI-Agenten mit Berechtigungs- und Prüfpfaden integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.11, "agentic_tools": 0.14, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.07, "role_override": 0.03 }, "override_label": "Recruiting-, Policy- und Interview-Workflows", "confidence": "high", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Viele standardisierte digitale Dokumenten- und Prozessaufgaben", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4887, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7887, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8587, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.7587, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6387, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8937, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7887, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7887, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "standardisierte Dokumente, Formulare, E-Mail, Termine und Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Sekretär/-in", "title": "Sekretär/-in", "slug": "sekretaer-in", "category": "verwaltung", "category_label": "Verwaltung & Administration", "isco": "4120", "pay": 86000, "jobs": 55300, "pay_previous": 65000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6637, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 86000, "lse_2024_group_code": "41", "lse_2024_group_label": "41 Allgemeine Büro- und Sekretariatskräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 55000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 6, "beta_2024": 0.6442, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.9642, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 1.0342, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "organisatorisch/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Standardisierte Dokumente sind stark erreichbar, aber Amtsverantwortung, Datenschutz und Ausnahmen begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fachverfahren, Register und KI-Agenten mit Berechtigungs- und Prüfpfaden integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.11, "agentic_tools": 0.14, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.07, "role_override": 0.05 }, "override_label": "E-Mail-, Kalender- und Dokumentenagenten", "confidence": "high", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Viele standardisierte digitale Dokumenten- und Prozessaufgaben", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 41", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.6442, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8042, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9642, "score": 10, "delta": 4, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "standardisierte Dokumente, Formulare, E-Mail, Termine und Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Zollbeamte/r", "title": "Zollbeamte/r", "slug": "zollbeamter", "category": "verwaltung", "category_label": "Verwaltung & Administration", "isco": "3351", "pay": 103000, "jobs": 4800, "pay_previous": 80000, "source_pay_previous": "EFV Bundesbesoldung", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7900, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 103000, "lse_2024_group_code": "33", "lse_2024_group_label": "33 Betriebswirtschaftliche und kaufmännische Fachkräfte und 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Zollverwaltung 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.4021, "technical_beta_2026": 0.6721, "technical_score_2026": 7, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7421, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 7, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.6721, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7421, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "organisatorisch/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Standardisierte Dokumente sind stark erreichbar, aber Amtsverantwortung, Datenschutz und Ausnahmen begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fachverfahren, Register und KI-Agenten mit Berechtigungs- und Prüfpfaden integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.11, "agentic_tools": 0.14, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.07, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "high", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Viele standardisierte digitale Dokumenten- und Prozessaufgaben" ], "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 8, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 33", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4021, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6721, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7421, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6721, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5371, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7666, "score": 8, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.6721, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.6721, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "standardisierte Dokumente, Formulare, E-Mail, Termine und Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Detailhandelsfachmann/-frau", "title": "Detailhandelsfachmann/-frau", "slug": "detailhandelsfachmann", "category": "verkauf-handel", "category_label": "Verkauf & Handel", "isco": "5221", "pay": 65000, "jobs": 221300, "pay_previous": 58000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 4970, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 65000, "lse_2024_group_code": "52", "lse_2024_group_label": "52 Verkaufskräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 220000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.4366, "technical_beta_2026": 0.6266, "technical_score_2026": 6, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6766, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 7, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.6266, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6766, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kundenbeziehung, Verhandlung und Ladenpraxis begrenzen, Backoffice und CRM sind stark erreichbar.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, ERP- und Angebotsagenten direkt in Verkaufsprozessen laufen.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenkontakt und Datenzugang relevant" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 7, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 52", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4366, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6266, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6766, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6266, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5316, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6931, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.6266, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.6266, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Kundenkommunikation, Angebote, CRM, Sortiments- und Backoffice-Arbeit" }, { "occupation": "Einkäufer/-in", "title": "Einkäufer/-in", "slug": "einkaeufer-in", "category": "verkauf-handel", "category_label": "Verkauf & Handel", "isco": "3323", "pay": 103000, "jobs": 28200, "pay_previous": 95000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7900, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 103000, "lse_2024_group_code": "33", "lse_2024_group_label": "33 Betriebswirtschaftliche und kaufmännische Fachkräfte und Verwaltungsfachkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 28000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.4894, "technical_beta_2026": 0.7094, "technical_score_2026": 7, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7594, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.7094, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7594, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kundenbeziehung, Verhandlung und Ladenpraxis begrenzen, Backoffice und CRM sind stark erreichbar.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, ERP- und Angebotsagenten direkt in Verkaufsprozessen laufen.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.03 }, "override_label": "Lieferantenrecherche und Angebotsvergleich", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenkontakt und Datenzugang relevant", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 8, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 33", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4894, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7094, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7594, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6794, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5994, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7864, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7094, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Kundenkommunikation, Angebote, CRM, Sortiments- und Backoffice-Arbeit" }, { "occupation": "Filialleiter/-in (Detailhandel)", "title": "Filialleiter/-in (Detailhandel)", "slug": "filialleiter", "category": "verkauf-handel", "category_label": "Verkauf & Handel", "isco": "1420", "pay": 87000, "jobs": 35200, "pay_previous": 72000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6723, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 87000, "lse_2024_group_code": "14", "lse_2024_group_label": "14 Führungskräfte in Hotels und Restaurants, im Handel und in der Erbringung sonstiger Dienstleistungen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 35000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.4808, "technical_beta_2026": 0.6708, "technical_score_2026": 7, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7208, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 7, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.6708, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7208, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kundenbeziehung, Verhandlung und Ladenpraxis begrenzen, Backoffice und CRM sind stark erreichbar.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, ERP- und Angebotsagenten direkt in Verkaufsprozessen laufen.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.03, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenkontakt und Datenzugang relevant" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 7, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 14", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4808, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7208, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5758, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7373, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.6708, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Kundenkommunikation, Angebote, CRM, Sortiments- und Backoffice-Arbeit" }, { "occupation": "Key Account Manager/-in", "title": "Key Account Manager/-in", "slug": "key-account-manager", "category": "marketing-sales", "category_label": "Marketing, Sales & Beratung", "isco": "2433", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 112000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.5177, "technical_beta_2026": 0.7777, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.7777, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8277, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kampagnen, Research, CRM, Angebote und Präsentationen sind stark erreichbar, aber Markenurteil, Verhandlung, Kundenzugang, Umsetzung und Budgetverantwortung begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, Marketing-Automation-, Research- und Präsentationsagenten enger mit Unternehmensdaten und Freigabeprozessen verbunden werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.07, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenzugang, Marke und Datenzugang relevant" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 8, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "B2B-Vertrieb wird in v4 dem neuen Berufsfeld Marketing, Sales & Beratung zugeordnet.", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.5177, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7777, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.7777, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6477, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7777, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Kampagnen, Copy, Research, Slides, CRM, Angebote und Beratungsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Lastwagenfahrer/-in", "title": "Lastwagenfahrer/-in", "slug": "lastwagenfahrer", "category": "transport-logistik", "category_label": "Transport & Logistik", "isco": "8332", "pay": 62000, "jobs": 85500, "pay_previous": 62000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022 / GAV Transport", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 5951, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 77000, "lse_2024_group_code": "83", "lse_2024_group_label": "83 Fahrzeugführer und Bediener mobiler Anlagen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 85000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2788, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3788, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3988, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3788, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3988, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "physisch/sicherheit", "cap_rationale": "Mobilität, Maschinenbedienung, Sicherheitskontext und Ausnahmeereignisse bleiben ausserhalb reiner LLM-Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Disposition, Flottensteuerung und autonome Systeme stärker mit Agenten gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.04, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Sicherheits- und Mobilitaetskontext" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (GAV Transport); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 83 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2788, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3788, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3988, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3788, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3288, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4138, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3788, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3788, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Disposition, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Mobilität bleibt ausser Scope" }, { "occupation": "Zugführer/-in (SBB)", "title": "Zugführer/-in (SBB)", "slug": "zugfuehrer-sbb", "category": "transport-logistik", "category_label": "Transport & Logistik", "isco": "8311", "pay": 75000, "jobs": 6500, "pay_previous": 75000, "source_pay_previous": "SBB Gehaltstabelle", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 5951, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 77000, "lse_2024_group_code": "83", "lse_2024_group_label": "83 Fahrzeugführer und Bediener mobiler Anlagen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 6500, "source_jobs_previous": "SBB 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2998, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3998, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4198, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3998, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4198, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "physisch/sicherheit", "cap_rationale": "Mobilität, Maschinenbedienung, Sicherheitskontext und Ausnahmeereignisse bleiben ausserhalb reiner LLM-Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Disposition, Flottensteuerung und autonome Systeme stärker mit Agenten gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.04, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Sicherheits- und Mobilitaetskontext" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (SBB Gehaltstabelle); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 83 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2998, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3998, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4198, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3998, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3498, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4348, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3998, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3998, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Disposition, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Mobilität bleibt ausser Scope" }, { "occupation": "Pilot/-in", "title": "Pilot/-in", "slug": "pilot-in", "category": "transport-logistik", "category_label": "Transport & Logistik", "isco": "3153", "pay": 185000, "jobs": 3800, "pay_previous": 185000, "source_pay_previous": "Branchendaten Swiss/Edelweiss", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7507, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 98000, "lse_2024_group_code": "31", "lse_2024_group_label": "31 Ingenieurtechnische und vergleichbare Fachkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 3800, "source_jobs_previous": "Bazl/SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2955, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3955, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4155, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3955, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4155, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "physisch/sicherheit", "cap_rationale": "Mobilität, Maschinenbedienung, Sicherheitskontext und Ausnahmeereignisse bleiben ausserhalb reiner LLM-Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Disposition, Flottensteuerung und autonome Systeme stärker mit Agenten gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.04, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Sicherheits- und Mobilitaetskontext" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Branchendaten Swiss/Edelweiss); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 31 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2955, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3955, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4155, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3955, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3455, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4305, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3955, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3955, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Disposition, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Mobilität bleibt ausser Scope" }, { "occupation": "Logistiker/-in", "title": "Logistiker/-in", "slug": "logistiker-in", "category": "transport-logistik", "category_label": "Transport & Logistik", "isco": "4321", "pay": 78000, "jobs": 55300, "pay_previous": 68000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6035, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 78000, "lse_2024_group_code": "43", "lse_2024_group_label": "43 Bürokräfte im Finanz- und Rechnungswesen, in der Statistik und in der Materialwirtschaft", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 55000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.4964, "technical_beta_2026": 0.5, "technical_score_2026": 5, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 5, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.5964, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6164, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "physisch/sicherheit", "cap_rationale": "Mobilität, Maschinenbedienung, Sicherheitskontext und Ausnahmeereignisse bleiben ausserhalb reiner LLM-Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Disposition, Flottensteuerung und autonome Systeme stärker mit Agenten gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.04, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Sicherheits- und Mobilitaetskontext", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "Dieser Wert ist besonders tätigkeitsabhängig: Disposition, Bestandsführung und Dokumentation ziehen den Score nach oben; Warenhandling, Kommissionierung und Staplerarbeit wären eher wie Lagerfacharbeit niedriger einzustufen.", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 43", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4964, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.5964, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Disposition, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Mobilität bleibt ausser Scope" }, { "occupation": "Lagerfachmann/-frau", "title": "Lagerfachmann/-frau", "slug": "lagerfachmann", "category": "transport-logistik", "category_label": "Transport & Logistik", "isco": "9333", "pay": 72000, "jobs": 42200, "pay_previous": 58000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 5541, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 72000, "lse_2024_group_code": "93", "lse_2024_group_label": "93 Hilfsarbeiter im Bergbau, im Bau, bei der Herstellung von Waren und im Transportwesen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 42000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 2, "beta_2024": 0.2266, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3266, "technical_score_2026": 3, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3466, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 3, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3266, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3466, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "physisch/sicherheit", "cap_rationale": "Mobilität, Maschinenbedienung, Sicherheitskontext und Ausnahmeereignisse bleiben ausserhalb reiner LLM-Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Disposition, Flottensteuerung und autonome Systeme stärker mit Agenten gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.04, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Sicherheits- und Mobilitaetskontext" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 93", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2266, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3266, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3466, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3266, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2766, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3616, "score": 4, "delta": 2, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3266, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3266, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Disposition, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Mobilität bleibt ausser Scope" }, { "occupation": "Koch / Köchin", "title": "Koch / Köchin", "slug": "koch-koechin", "category": "gastronomie-tourismus", "category_label": "Gastronomie & Tourismus", "isco": "3434", "pay": 62000, "jobs": 58300, "pay_previous": 62000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022 / L-GAV", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7078, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 92000, "lse_2024_group_code": "34", "lse_2024_group_label": "34 Juristische, soziale, kulturelle und verwandte Fachkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 58000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.3865, "technical_beta_2026": 0.5265, "technical_score_2026": 5, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5665, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 6, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.5265, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5665, "cap": 7, "cap_type": "physisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Service, Küche und Gästebeziehung bleiben physisch, Buchung und Kommunikation sind erreichbar.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Buchungs-, Revenue- und Gästeagenten flächendeckend integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.05, "agentic_tools": 0.05, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.04, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Gemischtes digitales und physisches Aufgabenprofil", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "Der Score wirkt für Küchenarbeit eher hoch, erklärt sich aber über Planungs-, Rezept-, Kalkulations- und Dokumentationsanteile. In operativer Linienküche ohne Planungsverantwortung wäre die LLM-Exposition tiefer.", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (L-GAV); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 34 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.3865, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5265, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5665, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.5265, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4565, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5755, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.5265, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, 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"score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2085, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2185, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.2085, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1735, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.233, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.2085, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.2085, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Beratung, Planung, Markt-/Wetterdaten und Marketing, aber Feldarbeit bleibt physisch" }, { "occupation": "Tierarzt / Tierärztin", "title": "Tierarzt / Tierärztin", "slug": "tierarzt", "category": "landwirtschaft", "category_label": "Landwirtschaft & Natur", "isco": "2250", "pay": 104000, "jobs": 5500, "pay_previous": 95000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 5500, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2703, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3403, "technical_score_2026": 3, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3503, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3403, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3503, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Feldarbeit, Tiere, Wetter und Maschinen begrenzen reine LLM-Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Agrarrobotik, Sensorik und Entscheidungsagenten stärker zusammenwachsen.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Sensorik und Robotik ausserhalb des LLM-Scopes" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2703, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3403, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3503, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3403, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3053, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3648, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3403, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Beratung, Planung, Markt-/Wetterdaten und Marketing, aber Feldarbeit bleibt physisch" }, { "occupation": "Grafiker/-in", "title": "Grafiker/-in", "slug": "grafiker-in", "category": "kunst-medien", "category_label": "Kunst, Design & Medien", "isco": "2166", "pay": 113000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 72000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8730, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 113000, "lse_2024_group_code": "21", "lse_2024_group_label": "21 Naturwissenschaftler, Mathematiker und Ingenieure", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.5125, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 4, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 4, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.9125, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9625, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich", "cap_rationale": "Multimodale Tools erreichen viele Aufgaben, aber Stil, Auftrag, Rechte, Marke und menschliche Auswahl begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Rechteklärung, konsistente Asset-Pipelines und multimodale Agenten produktiver werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.16, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.09 }, "override_label": "Bildgenerierung und visuelle Iteration", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Originalscore hat Scope-Hinweis", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "scope", "mapping_note": "Der Score ist methodisch korrekt fürs LLM-Mass, unterschätzt aber wahrscheinlich die reale KI-Betroffenheit, weil Bildgenerierung und visuelle Workflows nicht Teil des Eloundou-Scores sind.", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 21", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.5125, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.8225, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7125, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9125, "score": 9, "delta": 4, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Text plus Bild-, Video- und Audio-Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Journalist/-in", "title": "Journalist/-in", "slug": "journalist-in", "category": "kunst-medien", "category_label": "Kunst, Design & Medien", "isco": "2642", "pay": 119000, "jobs": 12100, "pay_previous": 78000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9122, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 119000, "lse_2024_group_code": "26", "lse_2024_group_label": "26 Juristen, Sozialwissenschaftler und Kulturberufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 12000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 6, "beta_2024": 0.6471, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 3, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.9971, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 1.0471, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich", "cap_rationale": "Multimodale Tools erreichen viele Aufgaben, aber Stil, Auftrag, Rechte, Marke und menschliche Auswahl begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Rechteklärung, konsistente Asset-Pipelines und multimodale Agenten produktiver werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.16, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.04 }, "override_label": "Recherche- und Redaktionsassistenz", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 26", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.6471, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8221, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9971, "score": 10, "delta": 4, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Text plus Bild-, Video- und Audio-Workflows" }, { "occupation": "PR-Fachmann/-frau", "title": "PR-Fachmann/-frau", "slug": "pr-fachmann", "category": "kunst-medien", "category_label": "Kunst, Design & Medien", "isco": "2432", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 9100, "pay_previous": 88000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 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"long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.16, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.5909, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7459, "score": 7, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.9009, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Text plus Bild-, Video- und Audio-Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Fotograf/-in", "title": "Fotograf/-in", "slug": "fotograf-in", "category": "kunst-medien", "category_label": "Kunst, Design & Medien", "isco": "3431", "pay": 92000, "jobs": 6000, "pay_previous": 65000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7078, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 92000, "lse_2024_group_code": "34", "lse_2024_group_label": "34 Juristische, soziale, kulturelle und verwandte Fachkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": 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false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.16, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0.09 }, "override_label": "Bild-KI und Retusche", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Berufsspezifischer Override sensitiv" ], "scenario_score_range": 3, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 34", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.3854, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7854, "score": 8, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8354, "score": 8, "delta": 4, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6954, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5854, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 5, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7854, "score": 8, "delta": 4, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7854, "score": 8, "delta": 4, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Text plus Bild-, Video- und Audio-Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Cutter/-in (Video/Film)", "title": "Cutter/-in (Video/Film)", "slug": "cutter-in", "category": "kunst-medien", "category_label": "Kunst, Design & Medien", "isco": "3521", "pay": 102000, "jobs": 4500, "pay_previous": 72000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7859, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 102000, "lse_2024_group_code": "35", "lse_2024_group_label": "35 Informations- und Kommunikationstechniker", "lse_2024_source_url": 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{ "beta": 0.3931, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3616, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3616, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Falldokumentation und Research, aber Beziehung und Schutzauftrag bleiben zentral" }, { "occupation": "Psychologe/-in", "title": "Psychologe/-in", "slug": "psychologe-in", "category": "soziales", "category_label": "Soziales & Beratung", "isco": "2634", "pay": 119000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 95000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9122, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 119000, "lse_2024_group_code": "26", "lse_2024_group_label": "26 Juristen, Sozialwissenschaftler und Kulturberufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.4716, "technical_beta_2026": 0.5, "technical_score_2026": 5, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 5, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.5616, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.5816, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "sozial/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Beziehungsarbeit, Schutzauftrag, Vertrauen, Datenschutz und Verantwortung begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fallführungssysteme und Dokumentationsassistenten sicherer integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.05, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Beziehungsarbeit und Schutzauftrag zentral", "Datenzugang stark begrenzt" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 6, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 26", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.4716, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.5616, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.5, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Falldokumentation und Research, aber Beziehung und Schutzauftrag bleiben zentral" }, { "occupation": "Kinderbetreuung (Krippe/Hort)", "title": "Kinderbetreuung (Krippe/Hort)", "slug": "kinderbetreuung", "category": "soziales", "category_label": "Soziales & Beratung", "isco": "5311", "pay": 73000, "jobs": 42200, "pay_previous": 62000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 5629, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 73000, "lse_2024_group_code": "53", "lse_2024_group_label": "53 Betreuungsberufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 42000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 1, "beta_2024": 0.1414, "technical_beta_2026": 0.2314, "technical_score_2026": 2, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.2514, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 3, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.2314, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.2514, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "sozial/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Beziehungsarbeit, Schutzauftrag, Vertrauen, Datenschutz und Verantwortung begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fallführungssysteme und Dokumentationsassistenten sicherer integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.05, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Beziehungsarbeit und Schutzauftrag zentral", "Datenzugang stark begrenzt" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 3, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 53", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.1414, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2314, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.2514, "score": 3, "delta": 2, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.2314, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.1864, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.2629, "score": 3, "delta": 2, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.2314, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.2314, "score": 2, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Falldokumentation und Research, aber Beziehung und Schutzauftrag bleiben zentral" }, { "occupation": "Schulischer Heilpädagoge/-in", "title": "Schulischer Heilpädagoge/-in", "slug": "heilpaedagoge", "category": "soziales", "category_label": "Soziales & Beratung", "isco": "2352", "pay": 88000, "jobs": 12100, "pay_previous": 88000, "source_pay_previous": "Kantone (BFS 2022)", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9697, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 126000, "lse_2024_group_code": "23", "lse_2024_group_label": "23 Lehrkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 12000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.3375, "technical_beta_2026": 0.4275, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4475, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.4275, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.4475, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "sozial/regulatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Beziehungsarbeit, Schutzauftrag, Vertrauen, Datenschutz und Verantwortung begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Fallführungssysteme und Dokumentationsassistenten sicherer integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.05, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Beziehungsarbeit und Schutzauftrag zentral", "Datenzugang stark begrenzt" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 4, "max_scenario_score": 5, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Kantone); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 23 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.3375, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4275, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4475, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.4275, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3825, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.459, "score": 5, "delta": 2, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.4275, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.4, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Falldokumentation und Research, aber Beziehung und Schutzauftrag bleiben zentral" }, { "occupation": "Polizist/-in", "title": "Polizist/-in", "slug": "polizist-in", "category": "sicherheit", "category_label": "Sicherheit & Schutz", "isco": "5412", "pay": 85000, "jobs": 18100, "pay_previous": 85000, "source_pay_previous": "Kantonspolizeien 2023", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6528, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 85000, "lse_2024_group_code": "54", "lse_2024_group_label": "54 Schutzkräfte und Sicherheitsbedienstete", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 18000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.31, "technical_beta_2026": 0.4, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.41, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.4, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.41, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "sicherheit/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Einsatzsituationen, Zwangsmittel, Deeskalation und Verantwortung bleiben menschlich und physisch.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Lagebild-, Rapport- und Trainingssysteme breiter eingesetzt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Einsatzsituationen und Verantwortung stark kontextabhaengig" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 4, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Kantonspolizeien 2023); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 54 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.31, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.4, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.41, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.4, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.355, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4315, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.4, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.4, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Berichte, Recherche und Lagebilder, aber Einsatzsituationen bleiben menschlich" }, { "occupation": "Feuerwehrmann/-frau", "title": "Feuerwehrmann/-frau", "slug": "feuerwehrmann", "category": "sicherheit", "category_label": "Sicherheit & Schutz", "isco": "5411", "pay": 75000, "jobs": 7500, "pay_previous": 75000, "source_pay_previous": "Berufsfeuerwehren CH 2023", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6528, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 85000, "lse_2024_group_code": "54", "lse_2024_group_label": "54 Schutzkräfte und Sicherheitsbedienstete", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "specialized_source_retained_lse_2024_benchmark_added", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "benchmark", "jobs_2023_base": 7500, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2777, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3677, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3777, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3677, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3777, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "sicherheit/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Einsatzsituationen, Zwangsmittel, Deeskalation und Verantwortung bleiben menschlich und physisch.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Lagebild-, Rapport- und Trainingssysteme breiter eingesetzt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Einsatzsituationen und Verantwortung stark kontextabhaengig" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "Spezialquelle beibehalten (Berufsfeuerwehren CH 2023); LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 54 Benchmark", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2777, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3677, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3777, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3677, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3227, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3992, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3677, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3677, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Berichte, Recherche und Lagebilder, aber Einsatzsituationen bleiben menschlich" }, { "occupation": "Sicherheitsbeauftragte/r", "title": "Sicherheitsbeauftragte/r", "slug": "sicherheitsbeauftragter", "category": "sicherheit", "category_label": "Sicherheit & Schutz", "isco": "5414", "pay": 85000, "jobs": 22100, "pay_previous": 68000, "source_pay_previous": "BFS LSE 2022", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6528, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 85000, "lse_2024_group_code": "54", "lse_2024_group_label": "54 Schutzkräfte und Sicherheitsbedienstete", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 22000, "source_jobs_previous": "BFS SAKE 2023", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.2881, "technical_beta_2026": 0.3781, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3881, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.3781, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.3881, "cap": 5, "cap_type": "sicherheit/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Einsatzsituationen, Zwangsmittel, Deeskalation und Verantwortung bleiben menschlich und physisch.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Lagebild-, Rapport- und Trainingssysteme breiter eingesetzt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.04, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Einsatzsituationen und Verantwortung stark kontextabhaengig" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "hoch", "mapping_note": "", "v4_gap_addition": false, "v4_gap_source": "", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 54", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.2881, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3781, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.3881, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.3781, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.3331, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.4096, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.3781, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.3781, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Berichte, Recherche und Lagebilder, aber Einsatzsituationen bleiben menschlich" }, { "occupation": "Marketingfachmann/-frau", "title": "Marketingfachmann/-frau", "slug": "marketingfachmann-frau", "category": "marketing-sales", "category_label": "Marketing, Sales & Beratung", "isco": "2431", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 45300, "pay_previous": 98000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 45000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 8, "beta_2024": 0.845, "technical_beta_2026": 0.845, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.845, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 1.105, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 1.155, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kampagnen, Research, CRM, Angebote und Präsentationen sind stark erreichbar, aber Markenurteil, Verhandlung, Kundenzugang, Umsetzung und Budgetverantwortung begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, Marketing-Automation-, Research- und Präsentationsagenten enger mit Unternehmensdaten und Freigabeprozessen verbunden werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.07, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenzugang, Marke und Datenzugang relevant", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. ISCO 2431 Marketing and advertising professionals; Schweizer Label ueber eidg. FA/Diplom plausibilisiert.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 1, "score": 10, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": true }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.845, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Kampagnen, Copy, Research, Slides, CRM, Angebote und Beratungsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Übersetzer/-in & Dolmetscher/-in", "title": "Übersetzer/-in & Dolmetscher/-in", "slug": "uebersetzer-dolmetscher", "category": "kunst-medien", "category_label": "Kunst, Design & Medien", "isco": "2643", "pay": 119000, "jobs": 12100, "pay_previous": 119000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9122, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 119000, "lse_2024_group_code": "26", "lse_2024_group_label": "26 Juristen, Sozialwissenschaftler und Kulturberufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 12000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 8, "beta_2024": 0.758, "technical_beta_2026": 0.9, "technical_score_2026": 9, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.9, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 9, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 1.068, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 1.118, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich", "cap_rationale": "Multimodale Tools erreichen viele Aufgaben, aber Stil, Auftrag, Rechte, Marke und menschliche Auswahl begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Rechteklärung, konsistente Asset-Pipelines und multimodale Agenten produktiver werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.16, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation nach Auftrag, Rechten und Organisation", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 8, "max_scenario_score": 10, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. ISCO 2643 Translators, interpreters and other linguists; in der mehrsprachigen Schweiz methodisch wichtige Luecke.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 26", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.758, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.9, "score": 9, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 1, "score": 10, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": true }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 0, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Text plus Bild-, Video- und Audio-Workflows" }, { "occupation": "Unternehmensberater/-in / Management Consultant", "title": "Unternehmensberater/-in / Management Consultant", "slug": "unternehmensberater-management-consultant", "category": "marketing-sales", "category_label": "Marketing, Sales & Beratung", "isco": "2421", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 25100, "pay_previous": 124000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 25000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 7, "beta_2024": 0.68, "technical_beta_2026": 0.8, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.94, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.99, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kampagnen, Research, CRM, Angebote und Präsentationen sind stark erreichbar, aber Markenurteil, Verhandlung, Kundenzugang, Umsetzung und Budgetverantwortung begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, Marketing-Automation-, Research- und Präsentationsagenten enger mit Unternehmensdaten und Freigabeprozessen verbunden werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.07, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenzugang, Marke und Datenzugang relevant", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. ISCO 2421 Management and organization analysts; Schweizer Consulting-Tätigkeiten koennen je nach Senioritaet stark variieren.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.68, "score": 7, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.94, "score": 9, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7, "score": 7, "delta": 0, "cap": 7, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Kampagnen, Copy, Research, Slides, CRM, Angebote und Beratungsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Controller/-in", "title": "Controller/-in", "slug": "controller-in", "category": "finanzen-recht", "category_label": "Finanzen & Recht", "isco": "2421", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 35200, "pay_previous": 124000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 35000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 6, "beta_2024": 0.6, "technical_beta_2026": 0.79, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.84, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.79, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.84, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Mandatsverantwortung, Haftung, vertrauliche Daten und finale juristische oder finanzielle Beurteilung begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "verifizierbare Legal-/Finance-Agenten, bessere Audit Trails und breiterer Datenzugang produktiv werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.07, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Datenzugang und Auditierbarkeit entscheidend", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 9, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Separat von Buchhaltung, da Steuerungs-, Planungs- und Reportingaufgaben anders gewichtet sind.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.79, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.84, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.79, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.695, "score": 7, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8565, "score": 9, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.79, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.79, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "lange Verträge, Dossiers, Regulierung, Research und Reports" }, { "occupation": "Wirtschaftsprüfer/-in (Auditor)", "title": "Wirtschaftsprüfer/-in (Auditor)", "slug": "wirtschaftspruefer-auditor", "category": "finanzen-recht", "category_label": "Finanzen & Recht", "isco": "2411", "pay": 124000, "jobs": 12100, "pay_previous": 124000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9509, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 124000, "lse_2024_group_code": "24", "lse_2024_group_label": "24 Betriebswirte und vergleichbare Spezialisten", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 12000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 6, "beta_2024": 0.5683, "technical_beta_2026": 0.7583, "technical_score_2026": 8, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8083, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.7583, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.8083, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Mandatsverantwortung, Haftung, vertrauliche Daten und finale juristische oder finanzielle Beurteilung begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "verifizierbare Legal-/Finance-Agenten, bessere Audit Trails und breiterer Datenzugang produktiv werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.07, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Datenzugang und Auditierbarkeit entscheidend", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 7, "max_scenario_score": 8, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Separat von Steuerberatung und Buchhaltung, da Testierung und regulatorische Verantwortung den Cap stärker begrenzen.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 24", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.5683, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7583, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.8083, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.7583, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6633, "score": 7, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8248, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.7583, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7583, "score": 8, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "lange Verträge, Dossiers, Regulierung, Research und Reports" }, { "occupation": "Notar/-in", "title": "Notar/-in", "slug": "notar-in", "category": "finanzen-recht", "category_label": "Finanzen & Recht", "isco": "2611", "pay": 119000, "jobs": 3500, "pay_previous": 119000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 9122, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 119000, "lse_2024_group_code": "26", "lse_2024_group_label": "26 Juristen, Sozialwissenschaftler und Kulturberufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 3500, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 4, "beta_2024": 0.425, "technical_beta_2026": 0.615, "technical_score_2026": 6, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.665, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 7, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.615, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.665, "cap": 9, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Mandatsverantwortung, Haftung, vertrauliche Daten und finale juristische oder finanzielle Beurteilung begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "verifizierbare Legal-/Finance-Agenten, bessere Audit Trails und breiterer Datenzugang produktiv werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.07, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Datenzugang und Auditierbarkeit entscheidend", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 5, "max_scenario_score": 7, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Schweizer Notariat ist kantonal reguliert und nur grob ueber ISCO 2611 juristische Berufe abbildbar.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 26", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.425, "score": 4, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.615, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.665, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.615, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.52, "score": 5, "delta": 1, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6815, "score": 7, "delta": 3, "cap": 9, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.615, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.615, "score": 6, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "lange Verträge, Dossiers, Regulierung, Research und Reports" }, { "occupation": "Aussendienstmitarbeiter/-in B2B / Verkaufsberater/-in", "title": "Aussendienstmitarbeiter/-in B2B / Verkaufsberater/-in", "slug": "aussendienst-b2b-verkaufsberater", "category": "marketing-sales", "category_label": "Marketing, Sales & Beratung", "isco": "3322", "pay": 103000, "jobs": 45300, "pay_previous": 103000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 7900, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 103000, "lse_2024_group_code": "33", "lse_2024_group_label": "33 Betriebswirtschaftliche und kaufmännische Fachkräfte und Verwaltungsfachkräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 45000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.48, "technical_beta_2026": 0.74, "technical_score_2026": 7, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.79, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 8, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 3, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.74, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.79, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "sozial/marktlich/organisatorisch", "cap_rationale": "Kampagnen, Research, CRM, Angebote und Präsentationen sind stark erreichbar, aber Markenurteil, Verhandlung, Kundenzugang, Umsetzung und Budgetverantwortung begrenzen.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CRM-, Marketing-Automation-, Research- und Präsentationsagenten enger mit Unternehmensdaten und Freigabeprozessen verbunden werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.1, "agentic_tools": 0.09, "multimodal": 0.07, "adoption": 0.05, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Starke Variation zwischen Organisationen", "Kundenzugang, Marke und Datenzugang relevant", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 2, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 8, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Ergänzt Key Account Management um breitere B2B-Aussendienst- und Verkaufsberaterrollen.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 33", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.48, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.74, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.79, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.74, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.61, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.8, "score": 8, "delta": 3, "cap": 8, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.74, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.7, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Kampagnen, Copy, Research, Slides, CRM, Angebote und Beratungsvorbereitung" }, { "occupation": "Architekt/-in", "title": "Architekt/-in", "slug": "architekt-in", "category": "ingenieurwesen", "category_label": "Ingenieurwesen", "isco": "2161", "pay": 113000, "jobs": 22100, "pay_previous": 113000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8730, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 113000, "lse_2024_group_code": "21", "lse_2024_group_label": "21 Naturwissenschaftler, Mathematiker und Ingenieure", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 22000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 5, "beta_2024": 0.45, "technical_beta_2026": 0.66, "technical_score_2026": 7, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 7, "delta_technical": 2, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 2, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.66, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.7, "cap": 8, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/technisch", "cap_rationale": "Normen, Haftung, physische Systeme und Validierung begrenzen trotz hoher Dokumenten- und Analyseexposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "CAE/CAD-, Normen- und Simulationsagenten prüfbar integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.09, "agentic_tools": 0.06, "multimodal": 0.06, "adoption": 0.04, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "medium", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Validierung, Normen und physische Systeme begrenzen", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 7, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Sichtbarer Schweizer Beruf, bisher trotz Ingenieur- und Bauberufen nicht separat abgebildet.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 21", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.45, "score": 5, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.66, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.7, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.66, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.555, "score": 6, "delta": 1, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.7335, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 8, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.66, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.66, "score": 7, "delta": 2, "cap": 7, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Normen, technische Dokumente, Code und visuelle Analysen" }, { "occupation": "Fachfrau/-mann Gesundheit (FaGe)", "title": "Fachfrau/-mann Gesundheit (FaGe)", "slug": "fachfrau-mann-gesundheit-fage", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "5321", "pay": 73000, "jobs": 80500, "pay_previous": 73000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 5629, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 73000, "lse_2024_group_code": "53", "lse_2024_group_label": "53 Betreuungsberufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 80000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.252, "technical_beta_2026": 0.392, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.412, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.392, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.412, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Schweizer EFZ-Beruf mit grosser Beschäftigtenzahl; nicht identisch mit diplomierter Pflege.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 53", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.252, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.392, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.412, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.392, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.322, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.441, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.392, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.392, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Medizinische Praxisassistent/-in (MPA)", "title": "Medizinische Praxisassistent/-in (MPA)", "slug": "medizinische-praxisassistent-in-mpa", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "3256", "pay": 81000, "jobs": 50300, "pay_previous": 81000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6203, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 81000, "lse_2024_group_code": "32", "lse_2024_group_label": "32 Assistenzberufe im Gesundheitswesen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 50000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 6, "beta_2024": 0.55, "technical_beta_2026": 0.6, "technical_score_2026": 6, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.6, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 6, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.69, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.71, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": true, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": true, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 6, "max_scenario_score": 7, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Schweizer Praxisrolle mit hohem administrativem Anteil; Score wegen Patientenkontakt und klinischen Grenzen gedeckelt.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 32", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.55, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.69, "score": 7, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.6, "score": 6, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" }, { "occupation": "Polymechaniker/-in", "title": "Polymechaniker/-in", "slug": "polymechaniker-in", "category": "handwerk-bau", "category_label": "Handwerk & Bau", "isco": "7223", "pay": 83000, "jobs": 45300, "pay_previous": 81000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 6394, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 83000, "lse_2024_group_code": "72", "lse_2024_group_label": "72 Metallarbeiter, Mechaniker, Polymechaniker, Produktionsmechaniker und verwandte Berufe", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 45000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 2, "beta_2024": 0.18, "technical_beta_2026": 0.24, "technical_score_2026": 2, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.25, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 3, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.24, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.25, "cap": 4, "cap_type": "physisch", "cap_rationale": "Vor-Ort-Ausführung, Materialarbeit, Sicherheitsnormen und Kundenkontakt setzen eine enge Grenze.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Robotik, AR-Assistenz oder digitale Bauakten stärker mit LLMs integriert werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.03, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.01, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Kontext dominiert", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 3, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Schweizer Industrie- und Lehrberuf; LLM-Score bewusst niedrig, weil Robotik/CNC-Automation nicht Teil des LLM-Masses ist.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 72", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.18, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.24, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.25, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.24, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.21, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.261, "score": 3, "delta": 1, "cap": 4, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.24, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.24, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Offerten, Planung und Dokumentation, aber physische Vor-Ort-Arbeit dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Coiffeur/Coiffeuse", "title": "Coiffeur/Coiffeuse", "slug": "coiffeur-coiffeuse", "category": "personen-dienste", "category_label": "Persönliche Dienste & Reinigung", "isco": "5141", "pay": 64000, "jobs": 25100, "pay_previous": 65000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 4927, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 64000, "lse_2024_group_code": "51", "lse_2024_group_label": "51 Berufe im Bereich personenbezogener Dienstleistungen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 25000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 2, "beta_2024": 0.15, "technical_beta_2026": 0.21, "technical_score_2026": 2, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.22, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 2, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.21, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.22, "cap": 3, "cap_type": "physisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Die Kerntaetigkeiten sind koerperliche Dienstleistungen vor Ort; KI hilft vor allem bei Termin-, Kommunikations-, Rapport- oder Marketingnebenaufgaben.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Serviceplanung, visuelle Assistenz und Robotik enger mit betrieblichen Workflows gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.02, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Service und menschliche Beziehung dominieren", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 2, "max_scenario_score": 2, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Sichtbare personenbezogene Dienstleistung mit niedriger LLM-Exposition.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 51", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.15, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.21, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.22, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.21, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.18, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.231, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.21, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.2, "score": 2, "delta": 0, "cap": 2, "capApplied": true } }, "note": "Termine, Checklisten, Kundenkommunikation und Marketing, aber physische Dienstleistung dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Reinigungspersonal / Reinigungsfachfrau", "title": "Reinigungspersonal / Reinigungsfachfrau", "slug": "reinigungspersonal-reinigungsfachfrau", "category": "personen-dienste", "category_label": "Persönliche Dienste & Reinigung", "isco": "9112", "pay": 59000, "jobs": 120700, "pay_previous": 57000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 4549, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 59000, "lse_2024_group_code": "91", "lse_2024_group_label": "91 Reinigungspersonal und Hilfskräfte", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 120000, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 1, "beta_2024": 0.05, "technical_beta_2026": 0.11, "technical_score_2026": 1, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.12, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 1, "delta_technical": 0, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 0, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.11, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.12, "cap": 3, "cap_type": "physisch/sozial", "cap_rationale": "Die Kerntaetigkeiten sind koerperliche Dienstleistungen vor Ort; KI hilft vor allem bei Termin-, Kommunikations-, Rapport- oder Marketingnebenaufgaben.", "cap_could_rise_if": "Serviceplanung, visuelle Assistenz und Robotik enger mit betrieblichen Workflows gekoppelt werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.02, "agentic_tools": 0.02, "multimodal": 0.02, "adoption": 0.01, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hoher physischer Anteil", "Vor-Ort-Service und menschliche Beziehung dominieren", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 0, "min_scenario_score": 1, "max_scenario_score": 1, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Grosse Beschäftigtengruppe mit niedriger LLM-Exposition; wichtig fuer Arbeitsmarktgewichtung.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 91", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.05, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.11, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.12, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.11, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.08, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.131, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 3, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.11, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.11, "score": 1, "delta": 0, "cap": 2, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Termine, Checklisten, Kundenkommunikation und Marketing, aber physische Dienstleistung dominiert" }, { "occupation": "Hebamme", "title": "Hebamme", "slug": "hebamme", "category": "gesundheit", "category_label": "Gesundheit & Pflege", "isco": "2222", "pay": 104000, "jobs": 4500, "pay_previous": 106000, "source_pay_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "lse_2024_monthly_median": 8000, "lse_2024_annual_benchmark": 104000, "lse_2024_group_code": "22", "lse_2024_group_label": "22 Spezialisten in Gesundheitsberufen", "lse_2024_source_url": "https://www.pxweb-admin-a.bfs.admin.ch/pxweb/de/px-x-0304010000_205/-/px-x-0304010000_205.px/", "pay_refresh_method": "lse_2024_ch_isco_group_median", "pay_mapping_level": "CH-ISCO-19 Berufsgruppe, 2-Steller", "pay_mapping_confidence": "mittel", "jobs_2023_base": 4500, "source_jobs_previous": "V4 Gap-Addendum", "jobs_refresh_method": "SAKE-2023-Berufsmix proportional mit SAKE-Gesamtwachstum 2023-2024 skaliert", "jobs_refresh_factor": 1.005776, "sake_2023_total_employed": 4848000, "sake_2024_total_employed": 4876000, "score_2024": 3, "beta_2024": 0.257, "technical_beta_2026": 0.397, "technical_score_2026": 4, "adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.417, "adoption_adjusted_score_2026": 4, "delta_technical": 1, "delta_adoption_adjusted": 1, "raw_technical_beta_2026": 0.397, "raw_adoption_adjusted_beta_2026": 0.417, "cap": 6, "cap_type": "regulatorisch/sozial/physisch", "cap_rationale": "Klinische Verantwortung, Haftung, Patientenkontakt, körperliche Pflege, Regulierung und Datenzugang begrenzen die Exposition.", "cap_could_rise_if": "regulierte klinische Copilots, multimodale Befundsysteme und sichere Datenintegration breiter zugelassen werden.", "cap_applied_technical": false, "cap_applied_adoption_adjusted": false, "modifiers": { "long_context": 0.07, "agentic_tools": 0.03, "multimodal": 0.04, "adoption": 0.02, "role_override": 0 }, "override_label": "", "confidence": "low", "uncertainty_reason": [ "Hohe regulatorische Verantwortung", "Patientenkontakt und Datenzugang begrenzen", "Unklare Schweizer Berufszuordnung" ], "scenario_score_range": 1, "min_scenario_score": 3, "max_scenario_score": 4, "mapping_confidence": "mittel", "mapping_note": "V4-Ergaenzung aus Lueckenanalyse. Separat von Pflege, da Aufgabenprofil und Verantwortung eigenständig sind.", "v4_gap_addition": true, "v4_gap_source": "Lueckenanalyse.rtf, v4", "source_pay": "BFS LSE 2024 CH-ISCO 22", "source_jobs": "BFS SAKE 2024 total-skaliert (2023 Berufsmix)", "scenario": "base_2026", "scenario_scores": { "science_2024": { "beta": 0.257, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "technical_base_2026": { "beta": 0.397, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "adoption_adjusted_base_2026": { "beta": 0.417, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_role_overrides": { "beta": 0.397, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "half_modifiers": { "beta": 0.327, "score": 3, "delta": 0, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "aggressive_modifiers": { "beta": 0.446, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 6, "capApplied": false }, "no_caps": { "beta": 0.397, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 10, "capApplied": false }, "strict_caps": { "beta": 0.397, "score": 4, "delta": 1, "cap": 5, "capApplied": false } }, "note": "Dokumentation, Fachliteratur und multimodaler Befundkontext, aber klinische Verantwortung bleibt begrenzend" } ] }